Monday, February 13, 2012

We're getting close, very close!

 The Dow Transports- Daily Chart
The Transports may be leading the way for what could soon transpire in the other asset classes (SPX, Gold, Silver, etc). Today marks the fourth sessions that prices have closed below the 10 period moving average in the daily time frame. In addition, prices have broken the intermediate trendline dating back to the October lows. The weakness in the Transports could spill over to the Dow Industrials, which could then force liquidation in the metals.This type of domino effect may very well be in it's pre-mature stages.
The U.S. Dollar- Daily Chart
The Dollar has also closed above its 10 day MA along with breaking the declining trendline. Furthermore, the Stochastic indicator has revealed the signal line breaking out from oversold levels.

The VIX- Daily Chart
The VIX is a measurement of fear and volitility in the marketplace, but also a contrarian indicator to the overall market averages. The inverse relationship that exists between the VIX and the market averages can confirm certain price action by corresponding signals in both indices. For example, the reversal that has transpired in the VIX, in theory, should confirm a reversal in the market averages (SPX, DOW, Nasdaq, etc.).  At this point I see no evidence of a reversal in the Market, but the reversal in the Dollar, the Vix, and the transports could be clueing us in to something much larger forthcoming. Until then, we must classify these signals as "non-confiming."

The S&P Mini- Hourly Chart
As I have mentioned in the chart above, it appears that prices are in backtest mode. There is the possibility that we may backtest as high as the apex of the current wedge in place, but you're putting yourself at high risk if you're long this market.

The S&P 500 Cash Index- Hourly Chart
I am seeing signs of trend exhaustion, plus we are currently trading at the apex of the rising wedge formation.  At this point, a reversal is imminent.

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