The history of the stock market reveals how specific patterns come into being, and how it influences subsequent behavior. Pattern sequences of a previous time are reborn and under the right circumstances, can identically repeat. It is simply a reproduction of how investors are behaving collectively at two different points in time. But knowing that a pattern has a particular script it follows can constitute a path that holds (or leads to) a likely outcome!
Ninety percent of the time all market declines will have two panics. The first is associated with volume and volatility, invoking maximum participation. The second is a byproduct of the first and unfolds in a final ‘flush out.’ It is less dramatic in size and influence- but prices reach new lows.
Time is also a component and is equally as important. Once a protracted decline sets in, historically there is not a typical short squeeze of five to eight percent in the other direction, but a tremendous upward spike which reverses the trend all together.
The modern day scenario that is most fitting is of course, the GOLD MINING INDEX. And after an extended three month correction, we can officially say "the rubber band has been stretched!" The technical picture provides enough evidence to define a clear cut two- panic low sequence, but more interestingly, the second panic has a particularly complex nature that morphed into a sideways and seemingly base pattern. This now calls for a violent uptrend underway!
GDX-Daily Chart (click to enlarge)
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