Sunday, April 10, 2016

Market Update

The warning did not come until Thursday, when price had several attempts to rally, but instead dropped to its previous low.  Now after two failures, a third test of the lows would undoubtedly break support and send price in a precipitous decline.

S&P 500- 4 hour chart

Other clues came during the last 2-3 weeks of the advance, when price would accelerate to new highs, but after a few days a minor correction occurred. The pattern now has formed several mini peaks along the way, indicating momentum loss.

S&P 500- 4 hour (chart 2)

Technically, since we are still in an uptrend, there is the possibility of a final short-squeeze to higher highs. Anything upward of 20, even 50 points would theoretically take the S&P into May for a top. The result would be a divergent peak, indicating the rally is a bad one. It would also be the best scenario for the bulls - as price would form an even larger top, providing enough time for everyone to get out.  In any case, whether we drop immediately, or continue on, the coming decline should lead to a 2-4 week sell off.

Stay tuned, more to come next week.