Sunday, July 31, 2016

Gold and GDX Are Doing The Complete Opposite.

The market is full of bloggers who write their own forecast. They’ll tell you one thing, and then another. Some will call it early, some will call it late. Some call it late because they’re afraid to call it period.

But, what you don’t know is the trend. The trend dictates direction. Direction tells you where.  Direction tells you everything. 

The Gold market is in a BULL market. The long-term trend is up. The intermediate trend is up. The short term trend is down.

Name a point in time when levels of bullish sentiment were at extremes, and you have the majority of people calling for a top? 

It just doesn’t happen. 

Take GDX for example. GDX has extended to marginal highs, but if you look closer, its individual counterparts are struggling. GDX is made up of 49 stocks, 21 of which have reached new highs. The other 28 have not. 

Those numbers aren’t terribly bad. They’re also not great either. And if GDX goes higher, those numbers are subject to change. I know.

But, this ETF is cap weighted. And its top 10 holdings account for nearly 61%. 

Only 4 out of the 10 stocks have reached new highs. 3 out of those 4 are ranked in the bottom half. 

Can these numbers change? Sure. But if another stock, or group of stocks break to new highs it does not project a bullish outlook. It’s called front running. 

Front running is a trap. And a very costly one. Front running makes you think what isn’t. Front running is also short lived. 

The culprit will be the dollar.

From 2014-2015, the dollar rallied for 10 consecutive months. Today it suggests nothing short of a consolidation. Its intermediate trend is up, and still looks very bullish. It too will rise.

Monthly Chart:

The next few weeks should go something like this. GDX attempts to rally a wee bit higher. But, anything higher is only to form a top. Then comes the selling. 

And the correction coming is not going to be pretty. It’s not going to be short. It’s going to last for several months, and run late into this year. It’s also just around the corner.

GDX Weekly Chart: