The metal today held up fairly well in comparison to the other asset classes. That probably has alot to do with how oversold conditions have been for some time. Today's session produced a gap, but what type are we looking at? Is it a gap and go, gap and trap, or a gap and fill? I mentioned the confluence of support in the chart below, so it could be a make or break situation for Gold.
GLD- Daily Chart
Now, the U.S. dollar. Earlier this morning we experienced what is called an impulse bar. Impulse moves occur in the direction of the current trend. In the chart below, I have illustrated this particular candlestick where a rush of buyers came in. Almost always there is a period of consolidation shortly after before another thrust higher. If that were to take place, could it mean lower prices for the stock market in the days to come?
Does this mean that fear will creep back into the market? Absolutely!- assuming the sell-off has begun. We don't know yet, but we can see more and more of the patterns developing that may infer several things. One- just like the head and shoulders topping pattern on the S&P, the opposite is taking place on the VIX daily chart. And two, is it okay to just say that nothing goes straight up, and maybe the fact of the matter is the market is due for a correction? Like I said before, buying opportunities come when fear sets in the marketplace, not complacency. We need to recycle the sentiment that exists in the current market for that be in our favor. That still doesn't mean betting against the market is not profitable too.
The VIX Daily Chart
The VIX Daily Chart
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ReplyDeleteI dont think the dollar is breaking out so soon.Infact it could make a quick move to 80-81 and then fall down to around 76-77 levels over the next couple of months giving the markets more excuse to go up.No surprises if a small move down ensues and then a rapid upward move in DOW and SNP to carry them to somewhere around 1470++ and 13600++ on DOW seems to on the cards.
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