Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Rules

First let me start off by saying that one day of selling does not constitute a crash waiting to happen. Prices must move in an orderly fashion by taking out one support level after another. I did, however, see that prices discounted the fairly positive economic data presented today. That may be an indication that the market wants to sell off because it's ready to. Prices in this multi-month rally did not want to sell off given the talks of greece, and other terrrible news coming out of Europe. Bottom line, when the Market is ready to roll over, it will be because its ready to, not because of a specific headline.

S&P 500- Daily Chart
The metal today held up fairly well in comparison to the other asset classes. That probably has alot to do with how oversold conditions have been for some time. Today's session produced a gap, but what type are we looking at? Is it a gap and go, gap and trap, or a gap and fill? I mentioned the confluence of support in the chart below, so it could be a make or break situation for Gold.

GLD- Daily Chart

Now, the U.S. dollar. Earlier this morning we experienced what is called an impulse bar. Impulse moves occur in the direction of the current trend. In the chart below, I have illustrated this particular candlestick where a rush of buyers came in. Almost always there is a period of consolidation shortly after before another thrust higher. If that were to take place, could it mean lower prices for the stock market in the days to come? 

U.S. Dollar- Hourly Chart

Does this mean that fear will creep back into the market? Absolutely!- assuming the sell-off has begun. We don't know yet, but we can see more and more of the patterns developing that may infer several things. One- just like the head and shoulders topping pattern on the S&P, the opposite is taking place on the VIX daily chart. And two, is it okay to just say that nothing goes straight up, and  maybe the fact of the matter is the market is due for a correction? Like I said before, buying opportunities come when fear sets in the marketplace, not complacency. We need to recycle the sentiment that exists in the current market for that be in our favor. That still doesn't mean betting against the market is not profitable too.

The VIX Daily Chart


  1. Thanks for sharing these charts, with the help of live charts it becomes easy to understand the market and one can grow rapidly by earning more money. MCX Tips

  2. I dont think the dollar is breaking out so soon.Infact it could make a quick move to 80-81 and then fall down to around 76-77 levels over the next couple of months giving the markets more excuse to go up.No surprises if a small move down ensues and then a rapid upward move in DOW and SNP to carry them to somewhere around 1470++ and 13600++ on DOW seems to on the cards.