Sunday, April 1, 2012

Time is running out!

This may be the most important blog post to date, so you'll need to hear me out on this one. I don't know if you remember the runaway move that we all experienced in silver last year, but almost every blogger, newsletter writer out there failed miserably at picking the top. It started with 30 bucks, then a week later is was 35 bucks, until 40 bucks became 50 bucks quicker than you could turn your computer on. You see, when emotions are running high, the retail investor will "buy into the hype" and quickly rush into an position hoping to catch the next ten dollars higher. This irrational decision making would have lead to a costly mistake, and even a terminal mistake had you been late in chasing the stock.

So why would such a scenario be so fitting for the current market we're in, you ask? Well, if I were to tell you that the Stock market is hinged on the performance of one stock, and that particular stock is in a parabolic, runaway move, would you be concerned? I know I would.

It would make sense for the strongest company of the market to have developed into a parallel uptrending channel which could allow investors to time an entry point on every pullback. However, the nature of the stock pattern suggests for a chase to buy. If this parabolic move breaks, and they all do, how would the stock market react? Even worse, right? So my point is, for the same reason the stock market has outperformed in these last several months may be for the same reason the stock market should undergo some turbulent times.

Oh and by the way, if you haven't already guessed by now, the stock is Apple.

Apple- Daily Chart

S&P 500- Daily Chart

Take that all you bull junkies out there!


  1. Darah i dont think anything is going to happen in the market before the facebook IPO is done.Perhaps an APPLE TOP will coincide with that.

  2. The scariest chart I can EVER remember. And Cramer was only recently saying it was still a BUY just as he was when silver was 40+. See what happens when the MACD comes crashing back to earth!

  3. As a Permabear, I do understand you annoyance with AAPL.

    Yet, relative to the main market, AAPL is 45% under-valued. The numbers are clear, AAPL is still CHEAP.

    Yes the recent rise looks unsustainable, but then..AAPL was 75% under-valued relative to the main market. Why was it ever with just a PE or 8? That never made any sense to me, and I'm as negative on the hysteria as anyone out there.

    I agree with NK' above, this nonsense rally looks set to continue until the Facebook IPO is done. As I've said a few times recently, the FB IPO would make for a nice 'marker' top, with at sp'1550.

    Good wishes..and try to stay balanced, I realise its not easy.