Charts from Today

GDX is beginning to crack. See for yourself.

Silver is too. Take a look.

Stay tuned, more to come next week. 

Darah

Gold and GDX Are Doing The Complete Opposite.

The market is full of bloggers who write their own forecast. They’ll tell you one thing, and then another. Some will call it early, some will call it late. Some call it late because they’re afraid to call it period.

But, what you don’t know is the trend. The trend dictates direction. Direction tells you where.  Direction tells you everything. 

The Gold market is in a BULL market. The long-term trend is up. The intermediate trend is up. The short term trend is down.

Name a point in time when levels of bullish sentiment were at extremes, and you have the majority of people calling for a top? 

It just doesn’t happen. 

Take GDX for example. GDX has extended to marginal highs, but if you look closer, its individual counterparts are struggling. GDX is made up of 49 stocks, 21 of which have reached new highs. The other 28 have not. 

Those numbers aren’t terribly bad. They’re also not great either. And if GDX goes higher, those numbers are subject to change. I know.

But, this ETF is cap weighted. And its top 10 holdings account for nearly 61%. 

Only 4 out of the 10 stocks have reached new highs. 3 out of those 4 are ranked in the bottom half. 

Can these numbers change? Sure. But if another stock, or group of stocks break to new highs it does not project a bullish outlook. It’s called front running. 

Front running is a trap. And a very costly one. Front running makes you think what isn’t. Front running is also short lived. 

The culprit will be the dollar.

From 2014-2015, the dollar rallied for 10 consecutive months. Today it suggests nothing short of a consolidation. Its intermediate trend is up, and still looks very bullish. It too will rise.

Monthly Chart:

The next few weeks should go something like this. GDX attempts to rally a wee bit higher. But, anything higher is only to form a top. Then comes the selling. 

And the correction coming is not going to be pretty. It’s not going to be short. It’s going to last for several months, and run late into this year. It’s also just around the corner.

GDX Weekly Chart:

Darah

GDX and Gold Rally is Suspect

The volatility on Friday created a technical aberration.  Still, the overall picture hasn’t changed.

It will also be pretty difficult for Gold to overcome the 50 MONTH moving average, on the first try. 

The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com
Darah

GDX Topping

Very good chance the GDX has topped today, or will next week.  Be watching for gap fills on the way down. Also note, this correction should be much bigger.

The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com
Darah

Chart of the Day

The market has completed its correction and now on course to new highs. Be watching the next resistance zone between 2130 and 2180.

The Complete Coverage Report offers two subscriptions—$9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com
Darah

Market Update

The warning did not come until Thursday, when price had several attempts to rally, but instead dropped to its previous low.  Now after two failures, a third test of the lows would undoubtedly break support and send price in a precipitous decline.

S&P 500- 4 hour chart

Other clues came during the last 2-3 weeks of the advance, when price would accelerate to new highs, but after a few days a minor correction occurred. The pattern now has formed several mini peaks along the way, indicating momentum loss.

S&P 500- 4 hour (chart 2)

 
Technically, since we are still in an uptrend, there is the possibility of a final short-squeeze to higher highs. Anything upward of 20, even 50 points would theoretically take the S&P into May for a top. The result would be a divergent peak, indicating the rally is a bad one. It would also be the best scenario for the bulls - as price would form an even larger top, providing enough time for everyone to get out.  In any case, whether we drop immediately, or continue on, the coming decline should lead to a 2-4 week sell off.

Stay tuned, more to come next week.
Darah

http://thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com