Monday, December 12, 2011

Downtrend Defined

Today's SPX index daily chart illustrates an intra-day low that formed . I have highlighted the tail of the candlestick to emphasize its importance. A series of lower highs and lower lows is known as a downtrend. What defines a downtrend can often be an unsettled discussion among many chartists. Some analysts believe that patterns are defined by their intra-day price movement, whereas other analyst favor a closing basis. In terms of cycle analysis, an investor selects the intraday high/low price  that form. With respect to candlestick charting, a confirming close of the day's price action validates the pattern. A close below today's low of 1227.25 is key for tomorrow's session, but more importantly, a growing shift to the downside risk. The stochastic gave a more defined bearish cross as it is now breaking below overbought territory. The stochastic indicator has proven to be a very accurate in recognizing the shift in prices judging back as far as the chart above shows. Stay tuned, I'll have more posts tonight.

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