Monday, December 19, 2011

NOT a correction

The SPX daily chart suggest several bearish implications that undermine the bullish correction pattern. I have annotated several points in the chart where volatile high/low range expansion candlesticks produced very little follow through. These volatile periods were a direct result of the reactive nature to headline risk that many investors experienced. Volume and Volatility in price action are known to break key levels of support or resistance. The sell-off in late July revealed large body candlesticks that broke the neckline/support level of the Head and Shoulders topping pattern. Notice the blue arrows drawn to  point out large upside moves that faded when prices met resistance. In order for the pattern to play out as a bullish correction, prices would need to continue its upward movement and have the staying power to produce higher highs and higher lows. So far, prices have met resistance at the declining 200 day moving average(red line) and can't seem to stay above it. This price action clearly favors a contratrend  to the overall structure in play. To validate this pattern as a contratrend would require a  break of the October 4th lows at 1074.77  Be on the lookout for a break of these lows in the coming weeks! 

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